I Know First Live Forecast Evaluation Report For Currencies Universe
Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm. 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I Know First Live Forecast Evaluation Report For Currencies Universe Predictability And Signal Together Beat BenchmarkSeptember 27, 2018
Executive SummaryIn this live forecast evaluation report we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the Forex market that we sent to our customers on a daily basis.
About the I Know First Algorithm
The I Know custodia portafoglio iphone 7 First self learning algorithm analyzes, models, and predicts the stock market. Mississippi State Bulldogs Jerseys Micah DeBose Alabama Jersey The algorithm is based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML), and incorporates elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms.
The system outputs the predicted trend as a number, positive or negative, along with a wave chart that predicts how the waves will overlap the trend. Custodia Cover iphone 11 pro max calvin and hobbes love L0427a Case cover custodia case iphone 11 J8648 futuristic wallpaper 22uM0 This helps the trader to decide which direction to trade, at what point to enter the trade, and when to exit. Eli Wolf Georgia Bulldogs Jersey Andrew Wilson-Lamp Jersey Custodia Cover iphone 11 pro max Yankees Baseball L3231 Case Since the model is 100% empirical, the results are based only on factual data, thereby avoiding cover samsung sm t335 any biases or emotions that may accompany human derived assumptions. Custodia Cover iphone 11 pro max darth vader star wars W9212 Case The human factor is only involved in building the mathematical framework and providing the initial set of inputs and outputs to the system. Bryson Rodgers OSU Jersey Jacquez Henderson Indiana Jersey James Foug Jersey The amazon custodia samsung a5 2017 algorithm produces a forecast with a signal and a predictability indicator. The signal is the number in the middle of the box. Greg Olsen Jersey Tre Williams Jersey Custodia Cover iphone 11 pro max Betty Boop Beautifull P0622 Case The predictability is the number at the bottom of the box. D.J. Morgan Notre Dame Jersey Cordale Flott Jersey At the top, a specific asset is identified. Custodia Cover iphone 11 pro max jacksonville jaguars W9157 Case This format is consistent across all predictions.
Our algorithm provides two independent indicators for each asset Signal and Predictability.
The Signal is the predicted strength and direction of movement of back cover samsung a5 2017 the asset. Custodia Cover iphone 11 pro max Call Of Duty Black Ops 4 O7423 Case Measured frominf to +inf.
The predictability indicates our confidence in that result. Racey McMath LSU Tigers Jersey It is a Pearson correlation coefficient between iphone xr hoesje past algorithmic performance and actual market movement. Measured from1 to 1.
You can find the detailed description of our heatmap here.
The Asset Picking MethodThe custodia samsung galaxy buds method in this evaluation is as follows:
We take the top X most predictable exchange rates pairs, and from them we pick the top Y highest signals.
By doing so we focus on the most predictable assets on the one hand, while capturing the ones with the highest signal on the other.
For example, a top 30 predictability filter with a top 10 signal filter means that on each day we take only the 30 most predictable assets, and then we pick from them the top 10 assets with the highest absolute signals.
We use absolute signals since these strategies custodia led iphone are long and short ones. Custodia Cover iphone 11 pro max Wubba Rum L2823 Case cover iphone 11 neji If the signal is positive, then we buy and, if negative, we short.
The Performance Evaluation MethodWe perform evaluations on the individual forecast level. Mack Anglin Jersey Kyle Cuffe Jersey cover custodia case iphone 11 D7551 disney wallpaper 18zU4 It means that we calculate what would be the return of each forecast we have issued for each horizon in the testing period. Mario Manningham – Michigan Wolverines Custodia Cover iphone 11 pro max One Piece Mugiwara Crew Wallpaper L3242 Case Then, we take the average of those results by strategy and forecast horizon.
For example, ebay custodia samsung s7 edge to evaluate the performance of our 1 month forecasts, we calculate the return of each trade by using this formula:
This simulates a consiglio custodia iphone 5s client purchasing the asset based on our prediction and selling it exactly 1 month in the future.
We iterate this calculation for all trading days in the analyzed period and average the results.
Note that this evaluation does not take a set portfolio and follow it.
The ratio custodia da cintura samsung s4 of our signals trading results to benchmark results indicates the quality of the system and our indicators.
Example: A benchmark for the 3d horizon means buy on each day and sell exactly 3 business days afterwards. Zane Herring Florida State Seminoles Jersey Custodia Cover iphone 11 pro max star wars darth maul Z4514 Case cover custodia case iphone 11 T7039 dbz wallpaper 17oU2 We then average the results to get the benchmark. cover iphone 11 amazing cover custodia case iphone 11 C7705 adventure time wallpaper 1yQ0 This is in order to get an apples to apples comparison.
Asset universe under consideration CurrenciesIn this report we conduct testing for the 50 currencies pairs covered by I Know First in “Currencies” package. Johnny Petrishen Jersey cover iphone 11 kaiju The package includes the major worldwide traded currencies such as USD, EUR, UK pound, etc.
Evaluating the predictability indicatorWe conduct our research for the period from January 2, 2018 to August 24, 2018. Trae Young Oklahoma Jersey cover custodia case iphone 11 R1918 samurai champloo wallpaper 55oA8 Following the methodology described in the previous sections, we start our analysis with computing the performance of the algorithm’s long and short signals for time horizons ranging from 3 days to 3 months without considering the signal indicator. Nick Brossette LSU Jersey Therefore, we applied filtering by the predictability indicator for 5 different levels to investigate its sole marginal contribution in terms of return as different filters are applied. cover iphone 11 need for speed rivals Afterwards, we calculated the returns for the same time horizons for the benchmark using the currencies universe and compared it against the performance of the filtered sets of assets.
